Morgan Kelly (Prof of Economics UCD) and Pat McArdle (Chief Economist, Ulster Bank) debate the likelihood of a property crash (Kelly) or a soft landing in todays Sunday Business Post. I’m no economist, but Morgan’s side of the debate seemed more compelling and was more concerned with presenting real data to support his position. For instance the average rent on a 1m euro property is about 2000 euros a month, while the mortgage repayments now stand at aroundÂ 4000 a month for the interest alone. Those economics demand high capital growth.
Pat on the other hand seems preoccupied with debunking common “myths” regarding the likelihood of an Irish property crash. As he admits himself, ( and I was thinking) , you would say that, wouldn’t you.